U.S. New Home Sales Will Likely Continue to Struggle

Despite some signs of relief in the U.S. housing market, most economists foresee continued challenges for new home sales over the coming months.

After unexpectedly rising 4.7% in February to 337k, economists expect new home sales in the U.S. to remain unchanged on the month in March. New home sales reached a record low of 322k in January, according to the Department of Commerce.

"Sales of new homes will likely continue to struggle during the first half of 2009 as employment, economic concerns and mortgage market troubles outweigh the improvements in overall affordability we have seen," economists from Wachovia noted.

They added that a decline in completions and general building activity will result in less supply coming into the market, and that inventories could return to the "equilibrium" levels seen in the late 1990s by this summer.

"There are a number of powerful incentives to purchase a new home in place today, including builder discounts, tax rebates for first-time home buyers and exceptionally low mortgage rates," they said.

Economists at Desjardins, meanwhile, said that despite the impressive rebound in February, the inventory of homes in the market remains high while the fall in prices does not appear to be slowing. In February, the median house price fell to $200,900, down from $206,800 in January. Annually, prices have fallen 18.1%.

"Yet, we can find some relief in the fact that homebuilder sentiment seems to be edging up from the nadir recently reached, and consumer confidence indexes associated with the purchase of a new home are doing slightly better than the indexes covering the purchase of an existing home," the Desjardins economists noted.

On the more optimistic side, HFE chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson is looking for sales to jump to 375k, while calling for a drop in inventories and prices.

"We think record low mortgage rates will prompt something of an upturn in sales; that's certainly the message from the NAHB survey," he said.

Last week, the National Association of Home Builders released a survey showing that confidence amongst home builders rose to its highest level since October.

The new home sales data will be released by the Department of Commerce at 10 a.m. EDT.

By Stephen Huebl and edited by Sarah Sussman
©CEP News Ltd. 2009

Housing Starts and Building Permits Pull Back in March

The U.S. housing sector showed greater than expected weakness in March, with both housing starts and building permits both falling further than expectations.

Housing starts fell to an annualized pace of 510k, representing a month-over-month decrease of 10.8%, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday morning.

The consensus was looking for starts to decline to 540k. The previous month's reading was revised down to 572k from a previously reported 583k.

Single-family homes - the most important component in the report, accounting for four-fifths of housing starts - were unchanged at 358k while multiple-family homes fell to 152k, compared to the previous month's 214k level.

Meanwhile, building permits fell to 513k in March, down from 564k in February. The consensus was looking for 549k building permits.

Single-family permits fell 7.4% in the month to 361k in March from February's 390k. Multiple-family unit permits fell to 152k, up from 174k units in February.

Geithner Says Most Banks Have Sufficient Capital

The majority of U.S. banks have more capital than they need, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said before the TARP's Congressional Oversight Panel on Tuesday.

Uncertainties surrounding the banking system have caused banks to withhold loans, the lawmaker said.

He also said the increased liquidity pumped into the toxic debt market is helping to determine values for illiquid securities. Uncertainty surrounding the true value of toxic assets is making it difficult for financial institutions to raise further capital, he said.

In a letter to the panel sent on Monday, the Treasury Secretary said the Treasury Department projects that the TARP has $109.6 billion in capital, but expects that $25 billion will be repaid over the next year. The TARP effectively has $134.6 billion in funds.

According to Geithner, the $25 billion expected to be repaid was a "conservative" estimate, backed by private analysis.

Governor Schwarzenegger Places 90 Day Freeze on California Foreclosures

California Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger signed into law a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures on Tuesday. The foreclosure freeze bill will impose a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures in the state of California. The bill exempts lenders who have a loan modification program in place meeting the standards set forth in the bill.

One such mortgage servicing standard including the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan laid out by the Obama Administration last week, which sought to lower payments to 38% of a borrower’s income (higher than the 31% DTI standard in the Obama Administration’s plan.)

The California Legislature, as part of the recently-passed budget package, approved Friday, legislation SB2X-7 and AB2X-7, which provide for a 90-day foreclosure moratorium. The bill, introduced by Sen. Ellen Corbett, D-San Leandro, as a trailer to the California budget package, covers owner-occupied homes where the first loan was recorded between Jan. 1, 2003 and Jan. 1, 2008.

Mortgage bankers are naturally opposed to the bill. A letter of opposition from the California Bankers Association, and other financial trade groups said a foreclosure moratorium will create uncertainty, delay economic recovery and stifle home sales.

Beth Mills, spokeswoman for the California Bankers Association, said struggling borrowers and their lenders already have more than enough time to search for mutual solutions. A state law passed last year increased the required period from first notification to final sale by 30 days, to a total of 141. More time is not the silver bullet to every troubled loan, she said.

The foreclosure moratorium law will go into effect in late May.